Anjing Food (603345): The performance is better than expected in the industry transition.
Event: The company announced its 19-year interim report and achieved operating income23.
3 ‰ / + 19.
9%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 1.
6.5 billion / + 16.
0%, realizing deduction of non-attribution net profit1.
4.9 billion / + 20.
7%, revenue and performance growth were better than expected.
In a single quarter, 19Q2 achieved operating income of 12.
400 million / + 25.
1%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 1.
0 ppm / + 13.
8%, the net profit of non-returned mothers is zero.
9 ppm / + 19.
The 0% core point of view has seen significant acceleration in sales, and alternatives continue to exert their strength: 1) After experiencing the “Swine Fever Incident”, the company is still able to achieve close to 20% revenue growth, with outstanding sales performance, especially Q2 revenue+10.
5pct, we believe that the combination of growth and recovery has benefited from the restructuring of the company’s brand strength, ensuring stable sales, and also benefiting from increased production capacity.
2) 19H1 frozen frozen surimi products achieved revenue8.
700 million / + 23.
7%, meat products achieved revenue of 5.
9 ppm / + 4.
9% (the second quarter revenue growth rate reached 15.
无锡桑拿网6%, up from -4 in the previous quarter.
3% obviously warmed up, and the instant impact began to digest), the flour products achieved revenue6.
400 million / + 25.
6%, quick frozen policy products achieved revenue 2.
2 ppm / +35.
5%, faster growth.
The catering channel is the new blue ocean of quick-frozen food. As an early distributor of the catering channel, the company is committed to becoming a first-mover advantage of the brand strength, and quick-freezing is expected to become a new growth point for the company in the future.
Channel expansion and sinking continued to materialize, driving rapid sales growth.
1) 19H1 The company achieved revenue 19 in the distribution channel.
9 ppm / + 22.
5% (dealer channel growth rate is significant, the first half of the company increased the dealer’s development efforts, a total of 44 dealers in the net increase, North China, southwestern regions grow faster), Supermarket to achieve revenue2.
9 ppm / + 2.
2%, special channels achieve 0 revenue.
500 million / + 16.
8%, the e-commerce channel realized revenue of 980.
2) In terms of different regions, the growth rates in Northeast China and North China increased significantly in the first half of the year, increasing by 48.
9% / 40.6%, initially due to the sinking of the channel and the release of capacity of the Liaoning plant.
Cost-side pressures have improved, and economies of scale have reduced expense ratios + expected tax cuts to boost performance.
1) The gross profit margin for 19H1 is 25.
1pct, of which 19Q2 overall gross profit margin is 24.
We believe that the main reason for the decline in gross profit margin is the rise in the price of pork and other raw materials, and the decline in gross profit margin in Q2 is more obvious, which also shows that the pressure on the cost side is gradually emerging; 2) However, it can be expanded and expanded, and the scale effect is also reflected.-2.
1pct, overhead rate -0.
5pct, which effectively offsets the performance changes brought by cost-side pressure.
3) In general, we believe that the positive impact of tax cuts on gross profit margins is emerging, and the performance boost in the second half of the year will be more sufficient.
Financial forecast and investment advice Absorb keen market sense + excellent channel strength + rapid expansion of production capacity. Driven by the three core competitiveness of the company, the company’s market share is increasing and the momentum is strong. The steady expansion of production capacity brings growth certainty, which is worth long-term allocationVariety.
Taking into account the impact of income tax reduction, we slightly raised the net profit attributable to mothers in 19-21 to 3.
5.0 billion (was 3).
According to the comparable company evaluation method, the comparable company’s PE in 19 years was 32X. Taking into account the leading position and conversion performance growth, it gave a 20% estimated premium, and the company’s PE of 19X in 19 years, corresponding to a target price of 53.
2 yuan (was 49.
3 yuan), maintain BUY rating.
Risks indicate food safety risks.
Capacity expansion was less than expected.
Market sales were worse than expected.
Higher cost than expected